Sherweb

2010: The number itself has a very sci-fi texture to it. As we approach the beginning of a new decade we can’t help but look back. Less than sixty years ago book authors, filmmakers, cartoonists, economists and scientists were all predicting some pretty incredible things for the human race at the outset of the 21st century. Some were slightly off in predicting that we’d already be flying around  the galaxy in spaceships, while others were as accurate as imagining a world under surveillance in which every household worshiped the images projected from giant television screens. The following is a look at some of these mid-20th century predictions, and how they measure up to the realities of today.

Futurology

Futurology is the practice of examining probable, possible and preferable futures along with the myths and worldviews that accompany them. Practitioners attempt to select the trends that might continue, the changes which will take place and anything unusual that might occur. Making these predictions requires an understanding of past and present trends; and information gathered from various disciplines in order to create a number of possible futures. These futures usually comprise of the possible, preferable, probable and chance futures. These views are then scrutinized and challenged by others to test their validity.

Energy Predictions

It was predicted that atomic energy and solar power would be more prominent in the year 2000 because it would be illegal to pollute the air by burning coal. Some predicted that science would have the capability to create street lamps that gave off light by bombarding atoms with electrons.

Energy Today

As of 2009 there has been a significant amount of research and development on solar power. Germany and Portugal have developed large multi-megawatt photovoltaic plants. This source of energy is not always available but scientists are decent at predicting the best times for this source of energy. Research and development on this type of green technology is ongoing. It is known that nuclear power plants cause certain problems due to their radioactive waves and nuclear waste; that said in 2007 nuclear power plants accounted for about 14% of the globe’s electricity. Street lamps have been improved since the 1950’s but not to the level that some predicted. Many street lamps use photocells so that they turn on when it is dark.

Housing Predictions

It was predicted that there would be significant advances in chemistry that would allow for cheap but reliable synthetic material to be created. Materials like poured plastic would replace bricks, stone and wood to build houses. These houses would have a life span of only 25 years and the low price tag of $5,000. The best thing about having a house created chiefly out of waterproof plastic is that when it comes time to doing your house cleaning, the only equipment needed is a hose. The soapy water is disposed of through a central drain followed by a blast of hot air. These synthetic materials have made the need for mechanization close to zero. For example, there are no dishwashers since all dishes can be dissolved in ultra-hot water. The few utilities that are still required, such as air conditioning and outlets, are contained in a central room that the house is built around.

Housing Today

Instead of being able to purchase a house for $5,000 the price of real estate has gone up quite a bit higher; houses sell for more than ten times this amount. Besides inflation, part of the reason for this may be that the building supplies still primarily consist of brick, stone, metal and wood. Instead of being less mechanized many houses in the 21st Century include a variety of mechanized appliances such as dishwashers, washers, dryers, blenders, etc. There are even robots that can help with your housework.

Food Predictions

It was predicted that food would also benefit from the advances in the chemical industry. Food would be converted from sources such as wood pulp, sawdust and even old underwear into sugary foods like candy. There was also a belief that the majority of food products would be delivered in frozen blocks that would be heated up by an electric stove, eliminating the art of cooking in many households.

Medical professionals would also have a deep understanding of how the body metabolizes food and how hormones work. This knowledge about nutrition would allow for improvements to be made to the aging process, 70-year-olds will look 40, and the average life span would increase to 85 and beyond.

Food Today

While our chemists have not found a way to transform our old underwear into sugary food products there is a rather extensive list of frozen foods and meals available to the public. Interestingly enough, the amount of salt and unhealthy fats used in these frozen meals are a major contributor to obesity and other maladies linked to poor nutrition such as type 2 diabetes. Considerable amounts of research is available to the public concerning proper nutrition yet poor eating habits are more of a problem now, due to the availability of fast foods. Our life spans may have increased but we have not used our knowledge of nutrition and biology to lessen the effects of aging to the extent that was predicted.

Electronics Predictions

It was predicted that there would be advances in the field of technology that would allow people to see each other while having a conversation; this would be used by businesses for international conferences. It would also be possible to TV shop since department stores would display their products on televisions for people to order. Most interesting was the prediction that machines would have some form of intelligence so that they would all be able to work together as one unit to manufacture a specific product. One machine would receive the instructions and then dole out orders to all of the other machines. It was even predicted that there would be a weather machine available that combines forecasting with quick calculating in order to accurately predict the weather. When a hurricane is predicted oil would be poured in to the sea and lit on fire in order to create a vacuum in order to stop the hurricane before it reaches the coast.

Electronics Today

Electronics have come a long way. The days of paperwork and filing are becoming increasingly obsolete and now businesses turn to exchange hosted services to help them run more efficiently, and protect them from e-mail spam and malware. (Words that would have sounded like gibberish twenty years ago.) Moreover, video conference calls are available to businesses during the 21st century as are videophone calls which enable two people to have a conversation and see each other at the same time. The use of webcams with instant messaging over the internet is another way in which people can interact visually and converse at the same time. When it comes to shopping via the television, there are infomercials available for people to view products and order them if they are interested. The prediction for automated assembly lines was close; the majority of automobile production takes place on one of these. We do not have AI at the moment but research is ongoing. Similar to AI we are still working on making our weather predictions more accurate so that we can at least prepare for the day.

Transportation Predictions

It was predicted that with the advances in technology and growth of cities that transportation would adapt. Trains will no longer be a common mode of transportation. They will remain a necessity when it comes to the transporting of products too large for air travel. Liners would be another popular vessel for the shipping of cargo; there is more room because they are automatic and no longer have to carry large amounts of fuel. It was believed that the popularity of automobiles would decline; these tear drop shaped vehicles would be driven from the rear by a high-compression engine that runs off of denatured alcohol. It was predicted that cars would be limited to short trips and that private helicopters would be the vehicle of choice for commuters; that or large public aerial buses. As for air travel it was believed that there would be supersonic planes that could reach speeds of 1,000 miles an hour. These would be available to rich business men who could afford a ticket. The rest of the population would still be able to use jet planes for their long distance travel needs.

Traveling Today

During the 21st Century trains are still a major mode of transportation when it comes to moving large cargo; however the predictions were off when it came to passenger usage. Not only are trains still a popular mode of transportation, but there have been significant developments made to increase their efficiency. For example, the use of subways as a mode of public transportation exists in certain major cities; and there are high-speed rails available in various countries. This is a train that is capable of reaching speeds as high as 125 mph depending on how new the tracks are. Ocean liners are still used to carry cargo and to offer leisurely cruises. However, liners still require a large amount of fuel to operate. Helicopters have not replaced cars as the most common form of transportation for commuters; the gas fueled automobile is still on top but there has been work on developing electric cars. There was a point where supersonic flight was available for passenger travel but this is no longer in practice; in fact the last supersonic flight took place in 2003. Jet planes are the most common method of air transportation.

Space Station Predictions

The producers of 2001: A Space Odyssey had predicted space stations to look like this.

Space Stations Today

Here’s what they look like today.

Medical Predictions

Predictions for the field of medicine also coincided with the belief that there was going to be major progress in the chemical industry. It was predicted that we would have antibiotics gathered from the soil and other moulds, which could be synthesized along with other chemical agents in factories. These would be used in something called chemotherapy. Advances in medical equipment would coincide with this. Microscopes use electron beams to magnify 30-100 thousand times allowing protein molecules to be seen. Along with advances in chemistry these developments have led to cures for common viruses like the flu. An ECG is no longer needed to examine the heart of a patient; now one only has to step in front of a fluoroscopic screen and turn on the x-ray for the photoelectric cell to examine all areas of the heart. Diseases of the nervous system such as MS and Parkinson’s have been linked to the electromechanical process and treatment for these is available. For example, it is possible to use a small battery operated machine to stimulate and reactivate your nerves to help with Parkinson’s disease.

Medicine Today

The predictions made about antibiotics turned out well since they are used to treat numerous maladies. Chemotherapy is also in existence; it is often used to treat cancer because it eliminates cells which divide quickly. With regards to the predictions concerning medical equipment there are electron microscopes which can magnify an image up to 1 million times. However, our advances in the field of chemistry have not reached the level where this technology could be used to find a cure for diseases like the common flu. Hospitals still use ECG, although in an advanced and more compact electronic form. Fluoroscopic screens are also available to doctors in the 21st Century. But, there is no small battery operated machine that can help with Parkinson’s; hopefully with the campaigning that Michael J. Fox is doing to raise awareness about Parkinson’s treatment like this will not be too far off.

The degree of accuracy for these predictions is quite decent; it would be odd if all of these predictions had been dead on. What these predictions did do was give the population, circa 1950’s, an educated idea of what the new millennium might bring.